109R | “Bear” Perspective

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109r bear perspective

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ChooseFI Favorite: top rewards card for beginners

Chase Sapphire Preferred Card​

Looking for the best credit card to start earning travel rewards points? The Chase Sapphire Preferred is our pick. With a 50,000 point signup bonus (after spending $4,000 in the first 3 months), the $95 annual fee waived the first year, and ultra-flexible points (transfers to 13 airlines & hotels!), this is our top choice!

Big ERN from Early Retirement Now joins the show to talk about the current market climate: How is it impacting investors, who could benefit, and what markers he uses to evaluate its actual condition?

We also share a voicemail from Abby, who provides a few more helpful hints for teaching abroad.

Topics from the show:

  • Brad maxed out his HSA for 2019, and talks about how he’s prioritizing fitness.
  • Easy choices, hard life. Hard choices, easy life.
  • Preview of who will be at the coming CampFI that Brad plans to attend.
  • Review of Monday’s episode about teaching abroad, and the wide variety of opportunities available.
  • A voicemail from Abby H., who is currently teaching in China and has experience in several other countries as well.
  • Abby tried teaching in Kuwait, but found that despite a high salary the cost of living was also extremely high.
  • Suggestions from Abby:
    • Don’t just look for jobs in the Middle East, or other “high salary” locations.
    • Try negotiating your salary/benefits offer.
    • Look for options that don’t require purchasing a car.
  • How did Rob and Scott, from Monday’s episode, replace fear with flexibility in each of their lives?
  • Big ERN joins the show to talk about the current market situation:
    • What is “sequence of returns” risk, and why does it matter?
    • Under the assumption that the great recession or the dot-com bust will not repeat, Big ERN thinks it’s too early to worry about the current market climate.
    • The 4% rule isn’t as untouchable as people think. With a small market downturn, it’s possible that some people will need to draw as much as 5%.
    • If someone’s portfolio decreased this year, should they work a few more years to rebuild it, or count on the market recovering?
    • If someone is still many years away from retirement, they shouldn’t worry too much about the market, and might actually be benefit from low stock prices.
    • If you have a 50% or higher savings rate, you are going succeed financially, regardless of this drop in the market.
    • The U.S. economy is still strong, so the value of the market isn’t necessarily going down – the price is just down.
    • If someone has a sum of money ready to invest, should they invest it all at once, or employ “dollar-cost averaging”?
    • Who should be concerned about the market and what should they be looking for?
    • Look at the fundamentals of the U.S. economy to evaluate the conditions of the market.
    • Big ERN just retired. His family is just settling in to a new house in Washington.

 

 

Links:

TeachAway

Early Retirement Now

Market Timing and Risk Management, Part 1 – Macroeconomics

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4 thoughts on “109R | “Bear” Perspective”

  1. I don’t think stocks are on sale yet. Are they cheaper than then a couple of months ago, yes. It’s like the local jewelry store that marks up a bracelet from $100 to $200 and then offers you a 40% sale!!! At $120 it’s still expensive, like our current market, in my opinion.

    I found this resources to be super helpful in understanding valuations and expected returns going forward: https://www.crestmontresearch.com/ur-highlights/

  2. Really good to hear from Big Ern–all things I knew but great to hear it from an expert. Bond yield curve 10 yr earning less than 2 yr, PMI index (business confidence), Unemployment claims up then worry. Look against averages.

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